Despite identifying El Niño events as a factor in dengue dynamics, predicting the oscillation of global dengue epidemics remains challenging. Here, we investigate climate indicators and worldwide dengue incidence from 1990 to 2019 using climate-driven mechanistic models. We identify a distinct indicator, the Indian Ocean basin-wide (IOBW) index, as representing the regional average of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean. IOBW is closely associated with dengue epidemics for both the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The ability of IOBW to predict dengue incidence likely arises as a result of its effect on local temperature anomalies through teleconnections. These findings indicate that the IOBW index can potentially enhance the lead time for dengue forecasts, leading to better-planned and more impactful outbreak responses.

中文翻译：

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印度洋温度异常预测全球登革热长期趋势

尽管确定厄尔尼诺事件是登革热动态的一个因素，但预测全球登革热流行的波动仍然具有挑战性。在这里，我们使用气候驱动的机制模型调查了 1990 年至 2019 年的气候指标和全球登革热发病率。我们确定了一个独特的指标，即印度洋全盆地（IOBW）指数，代表热带印度洋海面温度异常的区域平均值。 IOBW 与北半球和南半球的登革热流行密切相关。 IOBW 预测登革热发病率的能力可能是由于它通过遥相关对局部温度异常产生影响而产生的。这些发现表明，IOBW 指数可能会延长登革热预测的准备时间，从而制定更好的计划和更有效的疫情应对措施。