Objective:

Substance use initiation during early adolescence is associated with later development of substance use and mental health disorders. This study used various domains to predict substance use initiation, defined as trying any nonprescribed substance (e.g., alcohol, tobacco, cannabis), by age 12, using a large longitudinal data set.

Methods:

Substance-naive youths from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study (ages 9–10; N=6,829) were followed for 3 years. A total of 420 variables were examined as predictors of substance use initiation, using a penalized logistic regression with elastic net; domains spanned demographic characteristics, self and peer involvement with substance use, parenting behaviors, mental and physical health, culture and environment, hormones, neurocognitive functioning, and structural neuroimaging.

Results:

By age 12, 982 (14.4%) children reported substance initiation, with alcohol being the most common. Models with only self-report predictors had similar prediction performance to models adding hormones, neurocognitive factors, and neuroimaging predictors (AUC_test=0.66). Sociodemographic factors were the most robust predictors, followed by cultural and environmental factors, physical health factors, and parenting behaviors. The top predictor was a religious preference of Mormon (coefficient=−0.87), followed by a religious preference for Jewish (coefficient=0.32), and by Black youths (coefficient=−0.32).

Conclusions:

Sociodemographic variables were the most robust predictors of substance use initiation. Adding resource-intensive measures, including hormones, neurocognitive assessment, and structural neuroimaging, did not improve prediction of substance use initiation. The application of these large-scale findings in clinical settings could help to streamline and tailor prevention and early intervention efforts.

中文翻译：

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青春期早期开始药物使用的预测因素

客观的：

青春期早期开始吸毒与后来的吸毒和精神健康障碍有关。这项研究使用多个领域来预测 12 岁时药物使用的开始，定义为尝试任何非处方药物（例如酒精、烟草、大麻），使用大型纵向数据集。

方法：

对青少年大脑认知发展研究中未接触过物质的青少年（9-10 岁；N=6,829）进行了为期 3 年的跟踪调查。使用带有弹性网的惩罚逻辑回归，总共检查了 420 个变量作为物质使用开始的预测因素；领域涵盖人口特征、自我和同伴对药物使用的参与、养育行为、心理和身体健康、文化和环境、激素、神经认知功能和结构神经影像。

结果：

到 12 岁时，有 982 名 (14.4%) 儿童报告开始使用某种物质，其中酒精是最常见的。仅具有自我报告预测因子的模型与添加激素、神经认知因素和神经影像预测因子的模型具有相似的预测性能（AUC_检验=0.66）。社会人口因素是最有力的预测因素，其次是文化和环境因素、身体健康因素和养育行为。排名最高的预测因素是摩门教的宗教偏好（系数=−0.87），其次是犹太人的宗教偏好（系数=0.32）和黑人青年（系数=−0.32）。

结论：

社会人口统计学变量是物质使用开始最有力的预测因素。添加资源密集型措施，包括激素、神经认知评估和结构神经影像学，并没有改善对物质使用开始的预测。这些大规模发现在临床环境中的应用可能有助于简化和定制预防和早期干预工作。