Methanol is a primary petrochemical globally. Green methanol, produced by Power-to-X technologies, is a potential solution to the defossilisation of the existing methanol supply and fossil fuel substitution. This study investigates the optimal system configuration for the lowest cost green e-methanol production from electrolytic hydrogen and atmospheric carbon dioxide based on an hourly power supply by hybrid PV-wind systems in a 0.45° × 0.45° spatial resolution. Results suggest that, by 2030, solar PV will be the dominating electricity generation technology in most parts of the world. For a weighted average cost of capital of 7%, e-methanol could be produced for a cost range of 1200–1500, 600–680, 390–430 and 315–350 € per t_MeOH (189–236, 94–104, 61–68 and 50–54 € per MWh_MeOH,HHV) at the best sites in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, respectively. By 2040, the production cost of e-methanol will be within the market prices, suggesting that methanol supply could be defossilised at no extra cost for consumers. Conversely, e-methanol costs remain higher than the cost of natural gas-based methanol for fuel prices below 11 USD per MBtu. However, the introduction of up to 150 € per t_CO2 emissions cost could increase the cost of natural gas-based methanol to about 300 € per t_MeOH (47 € per MWh_MeOH,HHV), thus significantly improving the cost competitiveness of e-methanol in the market.

中文翻译：

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基于可变可再生电力的绿色甲醇的全球生产潜力

甲醇是全球主要石化产品。由 Power-to-X 技术生产的绿色甲醇是现有甲醇供应去石化和化石燃料替代的潜在解决方案。本研究研究了以电解氢和大气二氧化碳为原料以最低成本生产绿色电子甲醇的最佳系统配置，该系统基于光伏-风能混合系统每小时供电的情况，空间分辨率为 0.45° × 0.45°。结果表明，到 2030 年，太阳能光伏发电将成为世界大部分地区的主导发电技术。对于 7% 的加权平均资本成本，电子甲醇的生产成本范围为每吨_甲醇1200–1500、600–680、390–430 和 315–350 欧元（189–236、94–104、2020 年、2030 年、2040 年和 2050 年最佳地点分别为61-68 欧元和 50-54 欧元/MWh _MeOH,HHV 。到2040年，电子甲醇的生产成本将在市场价格范围内，这意味着甲醇供应可以去化石化，而消费者无需支付额外费用。相反，当燃料价格低于 11 美元/MBtu 时，电子甲醇成本仍然高于天然气甲醇成本。然而，每吨_{CO 2}排放成本高达150欧元的引入可能会使天然气甲醇的成本增加至每吨_{MeOH约300欧元（每MWh MeOH,HHV} 47欧元），从而显着提高e的成本竞争力。 - 市场上的甲醇。