As of 2023, the use of prescribed fire to manage ecosystems accounts for more than 50% of area burned annually across the United States. Prescribed fire is carried out when meteorological conditions, including temperature, humidity, and wind speed are appropriate for its safe and effective application. However, changes in these meteorological variables associated with future climate change may impact future opportunities to conduct prescribed fire. In this study, we combine climate projections with information on prescribed burning windows for ecoregions across the contiguous United States (CONUS) to compute the number of days when meteorological conditions allow for the safe and effective application of prescribed fire under present-day (2006–2015) and future climate (2051–2060) conditions. The resulting projections, which cover 57% of all vegetated area across the CONUS, indicate fewer days with conditions suitable for prescribed burning across ecoregions of the eastern United States due to rising maximum daily temperatures, but opportunities increase in the northern and northwestern United States, driven primarily by rising minimum temperatures and declining wind speeds.

截至 2023 年，使用规定火灾来管理生态系统的火灾占美国每年燃烧面积的 50% 以上。当温度、湿度和风速等气象条件适合其安全有效使用时，就会进行规定的火灾。然而，与未来气候变化相关的这些气象变量的变化可能会影响未来进行规定火灾的机会。在这项研究中，我们将气候预测与美国本土（CONUS）生态区规定燃烧窗口的信息相结合，计算出气象条件允许在当今（2006年- 2015）和未来气候（2051-2060）条件。由此产生的预测覆盖了美国大陆 57% 的植被面积，表明由于每日最高气温上升，美国东部生态区适合规定燃烧的天数减少，但美国北部和西北部的机会增加，主要由最低气温上升和风速下降驱动。