This study examines the hypothesis that the rapid development of Artificial Intelligence (AI), culminating in the emergence of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), could act as a "Great Filter" that is responsible for the scarcity of advanced technological civilisations in the universe. It is proposed that such a filter emerges before these civilisations can develop a stable, multiplanetary existence, suggesting the typical longevity of a technical civilization is less than 200 years. Such estimates for , when applied to optimistic versions of the Drake equation, are consistent with the null results obtained by recent SETI surveys, and other efforts to detect various technosignatures across the electromagnetic spectrum. Through the lens of SETI, we reflect on humanity's current technological trajectory – the modest projections for suggested here, underscore the critical need to quickly establish regulatory frameworks for AI development on Earth and the advancement of a multiplanetary society to mitigate against such existential threats. The persistence of intelligent and conscious life in the universe could hinge on the timely and effective implementation of such international regulatory measures and technological endeavours.

中文翻译：

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人工智能是让先进技术文明在宇宙中稀有的伟大过滤器吗？


这项研究检验了这样一个假设：人工智能（AI）的快速发展，最终导致人工超级智能（ASI）的出现，可能充当“大过滤器”，导致宇宙中先进技术文明的稀缺。有人提出，这样的过滤器在这些文明能够发展出稳定的多行星存在之前就出现了，这表明技术文明的典型寿命不到 200 年。当应用于德雷克方程的乐观版本时，对 的估计与最近的 SETI 调查以及在电磁频谱上检测各种技术特征的其他努力获得的零结果一致。通过 SETI 的镜头，我们反思了人类当前的技术轨迹——这里提出的适度预测，强调了快速建立地球人工智能发展监管框架和多行星社会进步的迫切需要，以减轻此类生存威胁。宇宙中智慧和意识生命的持续存在可能取决于此类国际监管措施和技术努力的及时有效实施。