Do ‘green’ environmental concerns – such as about biodiversity, climate change, pollution – deter citizens from having children? This paper reports the first longitudinal evidence consistent with that increasingly discussed hypothesis. It follows through time a random sample of thousands of initially childless men and women in the UK. The paper shows that those individuals who are committed to a green lifestyle are found to be substantially less likely to go on later to have offspring. Probit and Weibull survival models are estimated. The results are robust to controlling for people's age, education, income, marital status, mental health, life satisfaction, optimism, and physical health. The paper's key estimated effect-size is substantial. A person entirely unconcerned about environmental behaviour is estimated to be just over 50% more likely to go on to have a child than a deeply committed environmentalist.

中文翻译：

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环境问题是否阻碍人们生孩子？英国出生的纵向证据

“绿色”环境问题——例如生物多样性、气候变化、污染——是否会阻碍公民生育？本文报告了第一个与日益讨论的假设相一致的纵向证据。它随着时间的推移对英国数千名最初没有孩子的男性和女性进行了随机抽样。该论文表明，那些致力于绿色生活方式的人后来生育后代的可能性大大降低。估计 Probit 和 Weibull 生存模型。结果对于控制人们的年龄、教育、收入、婚姻状况、心理健康、生活满意度、乐观和身体健康来说是稳健的。该论文的关键估计效应大小是巨大的。据估计，一个完全不关心环境行为的人生孩子的可能性比一个坚定的环保主义者高出 50%。