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Hemispheric asymmetric response of tropical cyclones to CO2 emission reduction
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science ( IF 9 ) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 , DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00632-2
Chao Liu , Soon-Il An , Jiuwei Zhao , Seok-Woo Son , Fei-Fei Jin , Ruifen Zhan

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most devastating natural hazards for coastal regions, and their response to human activities has broad socio-economic relevance. So far, how TC responds to climate change mitigation remains unknown, complicating the design of adaptation policies. Using net-zero and negative carbon emission experiments, we reveal a robust hemisphere-asymmetric hysteretic TC response to CO2 reduction. During the decarbonization phase, the Northern Hemisphere TC frequency continues to decrease for several more decades, while the Southern Hemisphere oceans abruptly shifts to a stormier state, with the timescales depending on mitigation details. Such systematic changes are largely attributed to the planetary-scale reorganization of vertical wind shear and midlevel upward motion associated with the hysteretic southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, underpinned by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and El Niño-like mean state changes. The hemispheric contrast in TC response suggests promising benefits for most of the world’s population from human action to mitigate greenhouse gas warming, but it may also exacerbate regional socioeconomic disparities, for example by putting more pressure on small open-ocean island states in the Southern Hemisphere to adapt to TC risks.



中文翻译:

热带气旋对二氧化碳减排的半球不对称响应

热带气旋 (TC) 是沿海地区最具破坏性的自然灾害之一,其对人类活动的反应具有广泛的社会经济相关性。到目前为止,TC如何应对气候变化减缓仍然未知,这使得适应政策的设计变得复杂。通过净零和负碳排放实验,我们揭示了对 CO 2减少的强大的半球不对称滞后 TC 响应。在脱碳阶段,北半球热带气旋频率持续下降数十年,而南半球海洋突然转变为风暴较多的状态,其时间尺度取决于缓解细节。这种系统性变化很大程度上归因于垂直风切变和中层上升运动的行星尺度重组,这些重组与热带辐合带迟滞性向南迁移相关,而大西洋经向翻转环流和类厄尔尼诺平均状态变化则为支撑。半球的热带气旋反应对比表明,人类缓解温室气体变暖的行动将为世界上大多数人口带来可观的好处,但它也可能加剧区域社会经济差距,例如给南半球的小型开放海洋岛屿国家带来更大的压力适应TC风险。

更新日期:2024-04-02
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