Background: To make the pension system robust to population ageing, Denmark will increase the statutory retirement age in tandem with national life expectancy. By universally increasing this age, this pension indexation policy might amplify known inequalities in mortality, such as those between people in different living arrangements. Objective: We aim to quantify inequalities in mortality before retirement age by living arrangement over time and to estimate whether an increase in the retirement age could disproportionately affect disadvantaged groups. Methods: We estimate the probability of dying between ages 50 and 65/67/70 for several cohorts of Danes living in different household types, stratifying by socioeconomic status. To give a more complete picture, we also calculate equivalent age for each sub-group. Results: In Denmark considerable mortality inequalities exist depending on living arrangements, and they are becoming larger. Across all the dimensions of mortality we examine, single individuals cumulate a clear disadvantage. An increased retirement age would increase absolute and (for single individuals) relative differences in pre-retirement survival, adding to the widening trends across cohorts. Conclusions: Relying on the national average to set the statutory retirement age risks maintaining these subpopulations’ disadvantage. While early retirement schemes exist in Denmark, they mostly impact people based on their occupation. We highlight that other characteristics are strongly tied to mortality and should also be considered. Contribution: This paper falls within a project developed and directed by Jim Vaupel from 2019 until his death. He believed that the Danish pension indexation policy risked unfairly damaging specific groups. The results of this paper show that by neglecting existing and widening inequalities, this might indeed be the case.

中文翻译：

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退休前死亡率的差异：丹麦生活安排和婚姻状况的作用（作者：Serena Vigezzi、Cosmo Strozza）

背景：为了使养老金制度能够应对人口老龄化，丹麦将根据国民预期寿命提高法定退休年龄。通过普遍提高这一年龄，这种养老金指数化政策可能会放大已知的死亡率不平等，例如不同生活安排的人们之间的不平等。目标：我们的目标是通过一段时间内的生活安排来量化退休年龄前死亡率的不平等，并估计退休年龄的提高是否会对弱势群体产生不成比例的影响。方法：我们估计了生活在不同家庭类型的几组丹麦人在 50 岁至 65/67/70 岁之间的死亡概率，并按社会经济地位进行分层。为了更全面地了解情况，我们还计算了每个子组的等效年龄。结果：在丹麦，根据生活安排的不同，存在相当大的死亡率不平等，而且这种不平等正在变得越来越大。在我们研究的死亡率的所有维度中，单身人士都处于明显的劣势。退休年龄的提高将增加退休前生存率的绝对差异和（对于个人而言）相对差异，从而加剧群体间不断扩大的趋势。结论：依靠全国平均水平来设定法定退休年龄可能会导致这些亚人群处于劣势。虽然丹麦存在提前退休计划，但它们主要影响人们的职业。我们强调，其他特征与死亡率密切相关，也应该予以考虑。贡献：本文属于 Jim Vaupel 从 2019 年直至去世期间开发和指导的一个项目。他认为丹麦养老金指数化政策可能会不公平地损害特定群体。本文的结果表明，如果忽略现有的和不断扩大的不平等，情况可能确实如此。