This paper evaluates the socioeconomic, land use change, and greenhouse gases emissions impacts of degraded pastures recovery (DPR) in Brazil, assessing the contribution to the Brazilian Paris Agreement commitments. We used a Computable General Equilibrium model, TERM-BR15, in a scenario simulation for the period 2015–2035. The simulation includes DPR shocks of productivity, investments, and Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) fixation. We used two carbon accounting methods for the impacts on emissions, the original method of Brazil's emissions inventory, which does not consider SOC, and the alternative method, which includes SOC fixation. Results show a 0.56% growth in Gross Domestic Product and 0.73% in real household consumption relative to the 2035 baseline. There would be a social return of R$80.5 billion (in 2023 prices), representing R$8.27 for every real invested. Less developed and more dependent on cattle ranching regions would benefit the most. Cattle ranching would expand production using less area, resulting in a land-saving effect of 1.15 million hectares in 2035. GHG emissions would increase by 7.83% in the original accounting method, resulting from herd and economic growth. In the alternative method, 0.23% mitigation would occur, showing that SOC fixation can more than offset the economic activity growth. Independently of the GHG accounting method Brazil would achieve the 2025 mitigation target of 37% relative to 2005 but would not meet the 50% mitigation target of 2030. SOC fixation could contribute up to 5.7% of the 2030 mitigation target. Our results show that DPR is a sustainable production system that increases economic growth, avoids deforestation, and could mitigate GHG emissions. We provide information on regional impacts suitable for better decision-making for pasture restoration incentives in Brazil.

中文翻译：

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牧场恢复、排放和巴西《巴黎协定》承诺

本文评估了巴西退化牧场恢复 (DPR) 对社会经济、土地利用变化和温室气体排放的影响，评估了对巴西《巴黎协定》承诺的贡献。我们在 2015-2035 年期间的情景模拟中使用了可计算一般均衡模型 TERM-BR15。该模拟包括生产力、投资和土壤有机碳 (SOC) 固定的 DPR 冲击。我们使用两种碳核算方法来计算对排放的影响：巴西排放清单的原始方法（不考虑 SOC）和替代方法（包括 SOC 固定）。结果显示，与 2035 年基准相比，国内生产总值增长 0.56%，实际家庭消费增长 0.73%。社会回报将达到 805 亿雷亚尔（以 2023 年价格计算），相当于每笔实际投资为 8.27 雷亚尔。欠发达和更加依赖养牛的地区将受益最多。养牛业将以更少的面积扩大生产，到2035年可节省土地115万公顷。由于畜群和经济增长，温室气体排放量按原核算方法将增加7.83%。在替代方法中，会发生 0.23% 的缓解，这表明 SOC 固定可以抵消经济活动的增长。独立于温室气体核算方法，巴西将实现 2025 年相对 2005 年减排 37% 的目标，但无法实现 2030 年 50% 的减排目标。 SOC 固定可贡献 2030 年减排目标的 5.7%。我们的结果表明，DPR 是一种可持续的生产系统，可以促进经济增长、避免森林砍伐并减少温室气体排放。我们提供适合巴西牧场恢​​复激励措施更好决策的区域影响信息。