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Contrasting sensitivity of air temperature trends to surface soil temperature trends between climate models and reanalyses
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science ( IF 9 ) Pub Date : 2024-02-17 , DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00588-3
Yumeng Qiao , Guojie Wang , Daniel Fiifi Tawia Hagan , Kenny Thiam Choy Lim Kam Sian , Liangzhi Chen , Juha Aalto , Shijie Li , Xiao Zou , Jiao Lu

The sensitivity strength of air temperature (T) to surface soil temperature (sST) (namely β hereafter) constitutes a significant factor in how global climate models quantify changes in the climate. This study examines how this sensitivity is represented in the CMIP6 models. Results show regional differences and even contrasts in the β trends at interannual scales between climate models and two reanalysis products during 1980–2014. At high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), β is stronger in the CMIP6 models than in the reanalysis data. Additionally, the β trends differ between the CMIP6 and reanalysis data, which may be related to the different precipitation (PR) and soil water availability (PR-ET) trends between the models. In the regions of increasing β intensity at high latitudes in the NH, sST is more sensitive to PR and PR-ET. Consequently, increasing PR and PR-ET leads to slower sST changes, potentially making β intensity stronger in CMIP6 models. However, in the reanalysis data, decreases in PR and PR-ET accelerate sST changes, leading to a weakening of the β intensity. A resulting implication is that β, based on high-emission scenarios, shows a stronger trend during 2015–2100, although this trend could potentially be overestimated. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the sensitivity of T to sST and facilitate the assessment of energy exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere in climate models.



中文翻译:

气候模型和重新分析之间气温趋势与表面土壤温度趋势的敏感性对比

气温(T)对地表土壤温度(sST)(以下简称β)的敏感度是全球气候模型量化气候变化的重要因素。本研究探讨了 CMIP6 模型中如何体现这种敏感性。结果显示,1980-2014年气候模型和两种再分析产品之间的年际尺度β趋势存在区域差异甚至对比。在北半球 (NH) 高纬度地区,CMIP6 模型中的 β 比再分析数据中的β 更强。此外,CMIP6和再分析数据之间的β趋势不同,这可能与模型之间不同的降水量(PR)和土壤水可用性(PR-ET)趋势有关。在北半球高纬度β强度增加的地区,sST对PR和PR-ET更加敏感。因此,增加 PR 和 PR-ET 会导致 sST 变化减慢,可能使 CMIP6 模型中的 β 强度更强。然而,在再分析数据中,PR和PR-ET的减少加速了sST的变化,导致β强度减弱。由此得出的结论是,基于高排放情景的 β 在 2015-2100 年期间表现出更强的趋势,尽管这种趋势可能被高估。这些发现有助于更好地了解T对 sST 的敏感性,并有助于评估气候模型中地表和大气之间的能量交换。

更新日期:2024-02-21
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