Although the cost of capital has enormous bearing on the financial performance of forestry investment projects, the dynamics of this factor of production are under-theorized in modern forest economic thought and its potential susceptibility to management is under-analyzed by forest managers, investors, and scholars. This study illustrates the importance of the cost of capital relative to the choice of rotation age by modeling the discount rate differential required for fully randomized harvesting strategies to yield the same expected capitalized returns as optimal rotation planning. For numerical simulations of radiata pine plantations in New Zealand and benchmark discount rates between 1% and 10%, a crude dice-rolling strategy required discount rate concessions from 0.31 to 3.35 percentage points to match the performance of optimal rotations. “Optimal” random harvesting strategies—with stochastic harvest probabilities specified to maximize expected value—required discount rate concessions lower than one percentage point across the entire range of benchmark rates. This paper concludes with an exploration of potential mechanisms through which the cost of capital could be endogenized in forest economic analysis and practical investment management.

中文翻译：

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掷骰子收获所需的贴现率差异优于最佳轮换计划

尽管资本成本对林业投资项目的财务绩效影响巨大，但现代森林经济思想中对这一生产要素动态的理论化不足，森林管理者、投资者和森林经营者对管理的潜在敏感性也没有充分分析。学者。本研究通过对完全随机收获策略所需的贴现率差异进行建模，以产生与最佳轮作计划相同的预期资本回报，说明了资本成本相对于轮作年龄选择的重要性。对于新西兰辐射松种植园的数值模拟和 1% 到 10% 之间的基准贴现率，粗略的掷骰子策略需要贴现率让步 0.31 到 3.35 个百分点，以匹配最佳轮作的表现。 “最佳”随机收获策略（指定随机收获概率以最大化预期价值）要求在整个基准利率范围内的贴现率优惠低于一个百分点。本文最后探讨了森林经济分析和实际投资管理中资本成本内生化的潜在机制。