Abstract We develop a real options model to assess the impact of decoupled payments on agricultural investments. The context that we are addressing is the one set by the Common Agricultural Policy where farmers are eligible for decoupled payments as long as their land is properly maintained. We show that decoupled payments are non-neutral with respect to choices concerning timing and capacity. We find that they (i) induce earlier investment with lower productive capacity; (ii) increase the value of the investment option associated with land and (iii) reduce the volatility of farm income. A numerical exercise complements our theoretical analysis.

中文翻译：

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不确定性和脱钩支持下的农业投资：一种实物期权方法

摘要 我们开发了一个实物期权模型来评估脱钩支付对农业投资的影响。我们正在解决的背景是共同农业政策设定的背景，只要他们的土地得到适当维护，农民就有资格获得脱钩付款。我们表明，就时间和容量的选择而言，脱钩支付是非中性的。我们发现它们 (i) 以较低的生产能力诱导早期投资；(ii) 增加与土地相关的投资选择的价值，以及 (iii) 降低农业收入的波动性。数值练习补充了我们的理论分析。