Abstract A large literature in cognitive science studies the puzzling “Flynn effect” of rising fluid intelligence (reasoning skill) in rich countries. We develop an economic model in which a cohort’s mix of skills is determined by different skills’ relative returns in the labor market and by the technology for producing skills. We estimate the model using administrative data from Sweden. Combining data from exams taken at military enlistment with earnings records from the tax register, we document an increase in the relative labor market return to logical reasoning skill as compared to vocabulary knowledge. The estimated model implies that changes in labor market returns explain 37 percent of the measured increase in reasoning skill, and can also explain the decline in knowledge. An original survey of parents, an analysis of trends in school curricula, and an analysis of occupational characteristics show evidence of increasing emphasis on reasoning as compared to knowledge.

中文翻译：

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劳动力市场回报与认知技能的演变：理论与证据

摘要：认知科学领域的大量文献研究了富裕国家不断上升的流体智力（推理能力）令人费解的“弗林效应”。我们开发了一个经济模型，其中一个群体的技能组合取决于劳动力市场中不同技能的相对回报以及产生技能的技术。我们使用瑞典的行政数据估计模型。将入伍考试的数据与税务登记的收入记录相结合，我们记录了与词汇知识相比，相对劳动力市场回归逻辑推理技能的情况有所增加。估计模型表明，劳动力市场回报的变化解释了推理能力提高的 37%，也可以解释知识的下降。对父母的原始调查，