This paper investigates the influence of the risk perception of farmer−herder (FH) conflicts on rural households’ production decisions. Extending the farm household model to include the risk perception of farmer−herder conflicts, we test hypotheses derived using primary data from 401 rural households in Nigeria. Results indicate that higher risk perception of FH conflict reduces fertiliser use and increases the time allocated for farm work. Dividing households based on their risk aversion, we find that risk-averse households rent-in significantly less cropland compared to risk-taking households. Findings highlight the need for policies that sustainably tackle FH conflicts for improved agricultural production.

中文翻译：

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风险认知、农牧冲突和生产决策：来自尼日利亚的证据

本文研究了农牧民（FH）冲突风险感知对农户生产决策的影响。将农户模型扩展到包括农牧冲突的风险感知，我们检验了使用来自尼日利亚 401 个农村家庭的原始数据得出的假设。结果表明，对 FH 冲突的较高风险认知会减少化肥的使用并增加分配给农业工作的时间。根据风险厌恶程度对家庭进行划分，我们发现与冒险家庭相比，厌恶风险家庭租用的农田要少得多。研究结果强调需要制定可持续解决 FH 冲突以改善农业生产的政策。